Based on the halving, could Bitcoin be worth more than $ 300,000?
By: Daniel Fortuna, economist
Halving is a periodic event that occurs on a blockchain and its goal is to cut miner rewards in half. Bitcoins have a halving every four years.
According to many specialists, the halving, which has been present in the source code of Bitcoin from the beginning, is an element of inflationary control and influences the price of the 21 million Bitcoins that will be issued.
As stipulated in the Whitepaper, there is a halving every 210,000 blocks. Until today there have been 3 halving:
• 11/28/2012: Initial reward for miners reduced from 50 BTC to 25 BTC
• 7/9/2016: Reward reduced from 25 to 12.5 BTC
• 5/14/2020: Reward reduced from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC
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After the first halving, the price rose, in a year from $ 12 to more than 1,000 ($ 1,129 in November 2013). Eleven months after the second halving, the cryptocurrency rose from $ 650 to more than $ 2,500 in May 2017.
Source: Own elaboration with data from https://coinmarketcap.com/
On May 15, 2020, the date of the third and final halving, Bitcoin was trading at $ 9,377.0. Today it is trading above $ 60,000 (more than a 550% increase).
Source: Own elaboration with data from https://coinmarketcap.com/
One interpretation of this is that halving introduces a supply constraint (half of new small parts hit the market), producing excess demand (if held constant) that drives up the price, although this may not always be the case. it is immediate and without rises. and downs.
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This interpretation was empirically tested during the first two Bitcoin halving times.
Some analysts think that if the 2017 halving cycle is repeated, the price of Bitcoin would hit $ 253,800 or even $ 340,000, if the price repeats the pattern of the 2016 halving cycle.
The truth is that for the next halving, 2024, there is still a long way to go, and a lot of water will have to run under the bridge
