MWC 2025: A preview by John Strand, Strand Consult
For the past 22 years, Strand Consult has provided previews and post-views of the Mobile World Congress (MWC). MWC began 38 years ago in Cannes as a small conference, where attendees would gather at the Hotel Majestic’s bar after each day’s events. By 2019, it attracted a record 107,000 participants and 2,400 exhibitors. The 2020 pandemic cancelled the event, and 2021 was held as a hybrid, online/in-person format with 30,000 participants. In 2022, attendance rose to 61,000, followed by 88,500 in 2023. In 2024, MWC finally returned to pre-pandemic numbers with 101,000 attendees and 2,700 exhibitors, sponsors, and partners. GSMA aims to replicate this success this year.
2025 marks an anniversary in the mobile industry and reflects a key challenge for the industry: return on investment. Twenty-five years ago, European countries held a series of 3G auctions, which saw mobile operators pay a staggering €110 billion across Europe. Germany, the UK, France, Italy, Netherlands, and Spain each auctioned off roughly 140 MHz each. Germany raised a remarkable €50.8 billion, while the UK earned £22.5 billion. Mobile operators initially believed they could sell 1 MB of data for €1-2, but they were lucky to receive a fraction of a cent. To put this in perspective, the €110 billion spent in 2000 is equivalent to around $190 billion today. These auctions sparked a recession in the mobile industry and triggered a consolidation of infrastructure providers, shrinking 12 top-tier firms to 5. While the auctions were a financial disaster for mobile operators, they laid down a network footprint of mobile broadband to enable the rise of over-the-top (OTT) providers like Google, Facebook, Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft. Today, these OTTs have eclipsed mobile operators and have become the primary focus of MWC.
MWC Barcelona is like a menu at a Chinese restaurant or the Cheesecake Factory: long, impressive, and offering something for everyone. Its keynotes, panels, and exhibitions present the big picture, the hype, and the myriad of smaller elements that make up the vast mobile universe.
Framework for MWC and the State of the Mobile Telecom Industry
The thematic focus is directed at the largest OTTsand their provision of AI, cloud, and computer vision. The largest OTTs profit handsomely from access to mobile networks. However, their presence does not translate into increased revenue or earnings for mobile telecom operators. Simply put, while the average revenue per user (ARPU) for the largest OTTs continues to rise, the ARPU for mobile operators remains flat or declines. In many markets, OTTs now earn a higher ARPU than the very networks they rely on.
MWC actively promotes the services that OTTs create, deliver, and sell over mobile telecom networks. Mobile operators face heavy regulation. They must buy licenses, pay taxes, and employ thousands. OTTs, however, pay little to no taxes or fees, and in most cases, pay nothing to access mobile networks. The Caribbean with its two dozen nations offers a microcosm of this issue, and Strand Consult’s report Gigabit Caribbean: Closing the Investment Gap in Fixed and Mobile Networksdocuments the financial challenge.
A handful of the largest OTTs generate most of the world’s traffic. As much as 25% of OTT traffic is advertising, and this share is growing. End users must pay the data cost of advertising just the same as they do for the actual content they request. This wasn’t an issue in year 2000, but as mobile traffic has surged, broadband business models have failed to keep pace. OTTs have actively blocked the development of two-sided markets for mobile traffic, aiming to avoid competition in the advertising space. At the same time, they continue increasing the traffic they pump into mobile networks without compensating operators for the rising infrastructure costs—an economic classic: the “free ride.”
Failing to guide the industry toward a sustainable financial model, GSMA instead shifts its focus to everything mobile networks enable. Conference organizers know that showcasing what seems “cool” fuels the industry’s ongoing hype cycle—ultimately designed to sell tickets and exhibition space. The media buzz you see is carefully packaged into a vast program featuring 1,000 speakers across numerous panels and sessions.
The Struggle to Consolidate
For the 10th and final time, GSMA Director General Mats Granryd (2023 salary $2,082,863), will open the conference. Under his leadership, global mobile network provider revenue and profitability has got under huge pressure. Meanwhile, the number of mobile users has nearly doubled, from 4.15 billion to 7.49 billion. While Granryd might boast that the industry has become more efficient, serving twice as many customers with better technology and les revenue, the outcome has been disastrous for mobile network shareholders. Granryd tenure has overseen severe budget-cutting measures, starting with the mobile industry’s own profits.
If GSMA could do one thing for the mobile industry, it would be to advocate effectively for consolidation. It has struggled on this front, and consolidation efforts in Europe have largely stalled over the past decade. At MWC, mobile industry CEOs will once again voice concerns about unreasonable political and regulatory barriers. With industry revenues shrinking, firms should at least have the option to merge to reduce costs—but don’t hold your breath for change.
Indeed there is a push by many operators to highlight former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s report The future of European competitiveness describing EU failure to stimulate innovation and growth, its egregious regulation, and risk aversion. There is also the new European Commission (EC) Compass to regain competitiveness and secure sustainable prosperity, the predictable refrain for each 5 year commission to cut red tape and simplify the regulatory environment. The EC not only documents the regulatory problems but also proposes solutions, yet these recommendations often go unimplemented, leaving the situation unchanged. The Draghi report and the EC Compass are just old wine in new bottles.
While the EU has achieved much for Europe, notably the 5G toolbox for security, Brussels’ bureaucratic machine stifles entrepreneurship and penalizes risk-takers. Europe is a great place for a holiday, a football match, or a designer handbag, but when it comes to serious telecom investment, investors look elsewhere.
As energy accounts for a growing cost-center for mobile operators, the EU’s aspirational green energy fever dream warrants mention. EU Commissioner for Energy and Housing, Dan Jørgensen announced an Action Plan for Affordable Energy which attempts to decouple the price of energy from the price of electricity, a suspension of the laws of economics. It aspires to reduce energy taxes which EU nations will use ostensibly to raise money for defense. Jørgensen, Denmark’s Minister of Climate, Energy, and Telecom from 2019 to 2022, fervently promoted the climate agenda, garnering impressive media coverage. However, none of the projects he peddled, including his ambitious Energy Islands initiative aimed at powering 5 million households with offshore wind power, have come to fruition. Today, the Danish clean energy industry is in recession and the two Energy Islands have turned into a political Atlantis. Jørgensen treated Denmark’s telecom like an unwanted stepchild, having just one meeting with the trade association and attending no industry events in his three years. The telecom and energy markets share similarities – both have high fixed costs and limited customer bases. If mobile operators believe Jørgensen will lower energy prices, he can also sell them a bridge to Brussels.
Much like the GSMA, Connect Europe (ETNO) jumps on the Commission’s growth through greening bandwagon, echoing EC talking points in its press releases. These feel-good, look-good statements serve as distractions from the serious challenges the EU continues to ignore as the economy contracts.
Investment, Geopolitics and the Mobile Industry
Ukraine remains. For MWC 2022, Strand Consult wrote how Russia was the elephant in the room. European operators denounced the invasion; while the Chinese remained silent. The EU slapped 16 packages of sanctions on Russia to little effect. Russia just turned to China for help. In three years, the EU spent more money on Russian energy than financial aid to Ukraine. However Denmark, despite its small size, outperformed larger nations, spending 25% more on direct military aid to Ukraine than France, Spain and Italy combined.
Having founded Strand Consult 28 years ago, my views on telecom policy are shaped by my experience as a Dane and a proud European. Our continent can and must do better. Sadly the policy issues telecom leaders will discuss in Barcelona this year are the same ones they’ve debated for 15 years, all while overlooking the industry’s own strategic missteps. In football, underperforming players and coaches are fired; in European telecoms, accountability is far less common. The GSMA faces a dilemma if MWC focused rightly on creating shareholder value, it would be a much smaller event, with fewer flashy presentations, more pragmatic discussions, and far fewer of today’s speakers making the cut.
Some of the hard truths may surface at the GSMA Ministerial Programme, an exclusive gathering for regulators and select invitees. This is GSMA’s private forum where those responsible for failed regulations can discuss their decisions among themselves. Unfortunately, this means the European telecommunications industry’s massive challenges are debated behind closed doors, shielded from the scrutiny they deserve.
According to the EU’s own figures, the investment backlog in European telecommunications has doubled from €100 billion to €200 billion in just a few years. This is in a market where telecom companies struggle to generate a return on invested capital. As one leader recently put it, “A €100 billion or €200 billion shortfall sounds frightening. The reason is simple – if a sector’s return on capital employed is below the cost of capital, every euro spent destroys value. That’s why it’s so alarming.”
For those seeking more substantive insight into the industry’s challenges, I highly recommend the Telecoms.com podcast by Scott Bicheno and Iain Morris. One episode features Digicel founder and mobile network entrepreneur Denis O’Brien. It’s one of the best discussions on telecom I’ve heard, and O’Brien’s assessment of the industry is spot on.
There’s no doubt that MWC Barcelona is a place to meet fascinating people and hear big ideas. But if you’re looking for real solutions to the massive challenges the European telecom sector has faced for decades, you’re unlikely to find them there.
12 keynotes and other sessions worth mentioning
Here are some of the exciting sessions I plan to attend. Keynote 1 on Monday Gateway to a New Future features Mats Granryd and his GSMA successor, Vivek Badrinath, along with Vicki Brady from Telstra, Sunil Bharti Mittal from Bharti Airtel, Telefónica’s new Chairman & CEO Marc Murtra, Telenor’s new CEO Benedicte Schilbred Fasmer, and He Biao, President & CEO of China Mobile discussing how the mobile industry serves 6 billion people, its contributions to society, the value created through digitalization, and future potential. They will also likely address the significant economic and, in some regions, regulatory pressures the industry faces, challenges we’ve heard about countless times before. There’s nothing inherently wrong with that narrative, but the issue is that these leaders have been repeating the same points for 15 years, without real change in some regions, while others are progressing slowly but positively.
They will likely address geopolitical challenges like the war in Ukraine. However, I don’t expect them to address the eight risks for the 5G supply chain posed by suppliers under the influence of adversarial countries like China. The world is changing rapidly, and China is not the same country it was a decade ago. Today, China considers Russia, Iran, and North Korea as friends- nations actively working to undermine free-world democracies. Chinese mobile network suppliers have delivered 4G networks to Crimea after Russia’s invasion in 2014.
Today, thousands of North Korean soldiers are fighting alongside Russia in Ukraine, a war being waged on European soil with tacit approval from the Chinese government. Meanwhile, recent reports highlight how Chinese hackers are targeting critical telecom and energy infrastructures as well as the online accounts of government agencies and public officials. Additionally, a Chinese vessel has been implicated in sabotage of a subsea cable near Taiwan, just one example of China’s increasingly sophisticated electronic warfare efforts. Strand Consult foresaw this development in 2019 in its research note, Telecoms operators’ next big challenge is the 100,000 Chinese hackers attacking their corporate customers every day. The risks posed by China’s cyber activities are no longer hypothetical; they are a growing reality shaping global security and technological resilience.
In Keynote 2 Beyond Connectivity: The Telco to Techco Transformation features Ralph Mupita, the CEO of MTN which operates in 20 markets in Africa and has 287 million customers. Some of these markets are challenging and their political winds can change quickly, but MTN delivers reasonable results. Other speakers include Hatem Dowidar, Group CEO of e&, and KDDI President & CEO Makoto Takahashi.
Fair share and Broadband Cost Recovery
Don’t miss Keynote 3 Balancing Innovation and Regulation: Global Perspectives on Telecom Policy with Federal Communications Commission Chairman Brendan Carr (US telecom regulator) Brendan Carr, Indian telecom minister Jyotiraditya M Scindia, and European Commission Executive Vice-President for Tech Sovereignty, Security and Democracy Henna Virkkunen. The U.S. and India pursued significant market consolidation, driven massive 5G investments, and restricted the use of infrastructure from untrusted vendors. The U.S. and India serve as examples of how the right telecommunications policies can drive progress, benefiting consumers, society, and telecom companies alike. Just a few years ago, India was considered one of the worst telecom markets in the world. However, through strategic policy changes and market consolidation, the country has managed to turn things around, fostering a healthier and more competitive telecom sector. Meanwhile, Europe, instead of being a global leader in telecommunications, has positioned itself as the world’s regulator. Its policies have driven away investors and innovators, leaving its people behind when it comes to cutting-edge networks.
One important discussion notably absent from the public program is broadband network cost recovery the market-based negotiations between OTTs and mobile operators that are crucial for enabling infrastructure investment. GSMA’s struggle to articulate the value proposition and business model reflects broader shortfall to deliver meaningful policy for the industry. It seems the GSMA is more focused on placating Big Tech members. GSMA’s reluctance to address this challenge publicly means the broader mobile industry misses the chance to fully understand these concepts, leading to misinterpretations by the press and policymakers. GSMA should take a principled stance, recognizing that just as OTT players create value through two-sided market business models, mobile operators should have the same opportunity to do so.
Checkout the fair share panel on Monday, March 3rd, at 14:15 in Johnson Hall, Stage 6, titled Is It Time for Big Tech to Pay Their Fair Share? The Case for Backing Telecom Networks. It features Denis O’Brien (Digicel), Lauren Ballerin Cereza (MP European Parliament, Spain), Shahid Ahmed (NTT), and Bocar Ba (Moderator). Key points of discussion will include the Draghi report, which observes the need to address the imbalance between telecoms and Big Tech, encouraging commercial agreements with final arbitration. Panelists will likely explore successful policies like South Korea’s, where market-based negotiations between broadband and content providers of all sizes have happened for almost a decade, and Australia, where Google and Meta have made over 80 deals with publishers. The US had had non-public deals for some two decades, and ecosystems have flourished. The EU proposal on fair share, which applies to the B2B side of the market, will also be examined, along with the free ride practices of leading platforms like Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, TikTok, and Netflix, which collectively account for most European internet traffic. Questions will address the potential for deregulation, digital colonialism, and the role of GSMA in improving policies to foster investment in networks. Panelists could discuss how fair share arrangements could bridge the gap and help drive further global connectivity and network investment.
Similarly, the New Digital Economy: Connecting the Dots session at the GSMA Ministerial Programme, scheduled for Tuesday, March 4, 2025 at 11:45 to 13:00 CET features important speakers behind closed doors: Renate Nikolay, Deputy Director-General, DG CONNECT, European Commission; Mari-Noëlle Jégo-Laveissière, Executive Vice President, CEO, Orange Europe; Vivek Sood, Group Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director, Axiata Group Berhad; Ronnie Vasishta, Senior Vice President, Telecom, NVIDIA; Wilson L. White, Vice President, Government Affairs & Public Policy, Google; Wolfgang Kopf, Senior Vice President, Group Public and Regulatory Affairs, Deutsche Telekom AG; and Óscar López Águeda, Minister for Digital and Civil Service Transformation, Spain,
Strand Consult’s Global Project for Business Models for Broadband Cost Recovery has examined these issues in a series of reports with original research. Strand Consult has explored these issues through a series of reports with original research. Strand Consult has analyzed detailed broadband cost recovery policies in numerous countries and regions, including the USA, South Korea, the Caribbean, Brazil, Africa, the United Kingdom, and other nations, and offers workshops on the policy.
Satellite and the Mobile Industry
In the Tuesday presentation Looking Skyward: NTNs and the Next Era of Global Connectivity Eutelsat’s Eva Berneke, SpaceX’s David Goldman, Skylo’s Parth Trivedi and Intelsat’s Carmel Ortiz will explore how non-terrestrial networks (NTNs). To learn more about this topic get Strand Consult’s new free report Will LEO Satellite Direct-to-Cellular Networks Make Traditional Mobile Networks Obsolete? Few know that for the past three years, Eva Berneke through Eutelsat Group has facilitated the distribution of Russian state-controlled media to their Russian customers, NTV Plus and Trikolor, reaching approximately 15 million households in Russia and occupied Ukrainian territories. Despite European Union sanctions imposed in December 2022 against certain Russian media company.
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