Tesla bots, Dogecoin, Musk’s net worth and more draw millions in wagers ahead of inauguration

A new study has revealed the top ten events that people are betting on in relation to Donald Trump’s inauguration as the president of the United States on January 20.
The study by sports betting experts Casino Reports, used popular prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi to aggregate the events for which market predictions are being made. They were then ranked based on the total dollar amount bet on each event.
1.Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration
$3.4 million has been bet on whether Donald Trump can negotiate a ceasefire, armistice, or settlement between Russia and Ukraine by 23:59 on January 19. However, only 1% of bettors currently believe this is possible – a steep decline from the 16% who bet on a “yes” on November 7, 2024, when the markets opened on this wager.
2. Will every president attend Trump’s inauguration?
92% of bettors are sure the last four US presidents, excluding Trump, will attend his inauguration. $2.6 million has been bet on the presence of George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Joe Biden at Trump’s inauguration.
3. What will Trump say during the inauguration Speech?
$1.4 million in bets have been placed on which words and phrases Trump will use during his speech. 78% of bettors think that Trump will say the phrase “America First” at least once. 4% of bettors speculate that he will say the word “McDonald’s.” Other popular bets are “Dogecoin” and “Kamala.”
4. Will Trump be sentenced to prison in the NY case before the inauguration?
The presiding judge in Trump’s ongoing New York criminal hush money case recently denied his request to halt his sentencing until after his inauguration. There is much speculation surrounding the possibility of Trump being sentenced to prison before his inauguration, with the total wager amount coming to $793,459. However, only 15% of bettors believe this outcome is likely.
5. How many Executive Orders will Trump issue on Day 1?
$449,736 has been wagered on the number of executive orders Trump will issue on his first day in office. 71% of bettors think he will issue more than 15 executive orders. For comparison, Biden issued 17 on his first day in office in 2021.
6. Will Elon Musk be worth $500b by the Trump inauguration?
Musk and Trump have a famously tumultuous bromance. However, the “first buddy” has stayed close to Trump since the elections. Markets are betting on whether Musk’s current net worth of $424.2 billion will reach half a trillion by January 20. $323,382 has been wagered on what Musk’s net worth will be by the inauguration. Only 3% of bettors currently believe his net worth will reach the $500 billion mark. This is down from the 22% of bettors who bet on “yes” in December.
7. Tesla bot at Trump’s inauguration?
6% of bettors think that a Tesla Bot (or any humanoid robot designed by Tesla, Inc. or one of its subsidiaries) will be visibly present during Trump’s inauguration. $233,436 has been wagered on this possibility.
8. Will Trump have positive favorability on inauguration day?
Americans currently have an unfavorable opinion of their incoming president, Donald Trump, by a very slim margin. According to FiveThirtyEight, 47.5% of Americans have an unfavorable opinion, and 47.1% have a favorable opinion of the incoming president. $171,299 has been bet on what the general opinion of Trump will be, and 80% of bettors are positive that Trump will have positive favorability by January 20.
9. Will Dogecoin hit 69 cents by inauguration day?
$168,877 has been wagered on the value of Dogecoin by the inauguration. Dogecoin, often promoted by Musk, is perhaps the most famous meme coin in the world. Currently standing at $0.3857, 4% of the markets are optimistic it will be worth $0.69 by January 20.
10. Will another Trump Cabinet nominee withdraw before Inauguration Day?
Trump has had multiple mishaps with his cabinet selections, including Matt Gaetz, who had to withdraw from consideration as Trump’s attorney general. Five other nominees for positions within Trump’s cabinet have withdrawn since he won the elections. $108,638 has been bet on the possibility of another withdrawal before the inauguration, with 8% of bettors certain that another withdrawal will happen.
Brett Smiley, Editorial Manager at Casino Reports, commented on the findings,
“The findings highlight the intriguing intersection of politics and popular culture, as bettors engage with the unfolding narrative surrounding Trump’s inauguration and the multitude of factors that could impact and be impacted by it.
“Nearly $10 million has been wagered on various events tied to the upcoming inauguration of Donald Trump, indicating that people are willing to put their money where their mouths are, and actively engage with these events rather than speculating from the sidelines.”
See more: US likely to buy hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins, predicts deVere CEO
See more: Fraud evolution, AI takeover, and borderless banking: What to expect in 2025
See more: NJ FAST powered by Plug and Play graduates 14 startups in its inaugural program